The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to November 30, 2026, and has already seen its first two named storms—Tropical Storm Arthur (formed June 17) and Tropical Storm Bertha—impact the Gulf of Mexico and the U.S. Gulf Coast. Pre-season forecasts from major agencies varied widely, with the University of Arizona predicting an active season of 20 named storms, while Colorado State University and Tropical Storm Risk forecasted a below-normal season (13 and 12 named storms, respectively). The primary factor driving these divergent predictions is the anticipated development of robust El Niño conditions, which typically increase wind shear over the Atlantic and suppress hurricane formation, despite warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures. The Weather Channel and North Carolina State University also issued forecasts calling for 12 and 12–15 named storms, respectively, reflecting the overall uncertainty. Activity is measured by the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, with forecasts ranging from 66 to 155 units, highlighting the potential for either a quiet or a very active season.